Sudan

16 March 2026
Risk Level: Current Crisis

Populations in Sudan are enduring war crimes and crimes against humanity due to an armed confrontation between the Sudanese military, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied armed groups. Non-Arab communities in Darfur are enduring crimes perpetrated by the RSF that may amount to acts of genocide.

BACKGROUND:

Since violent clashes broke out on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), both parties have been fighting to preserve and expand their control in Sudan, with allied armed groups further complicating the conflict. The fighting has included indiscriminate and deliberate attacks against civilians and civilian objects, often with rocket shells, bombardments and heavy artillery, often in densely populated areas, as well as the widespread use of sexual violence, including rape, sexual assault, exploitation and sexual slavery. The UN Human Rights Council (HRC)-mandated Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) has concluded that the SAF and RSF and allied armed groups are responsible for large-scale violations of human rights and International Humanitarian Law (IHL), many of which amount to war crimes and/or crimes against humanity.

The RSF have utilized the conflict to accelerate a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing and large-scale attacks targeting non-Arab communities in Darfur and other regions. In February 2026 the FFM concluded that the RSF committed crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide against non-Arab communities in and around El Fasher, North Darfur, during their siege and subsequent takeover of the city in October 2025. During and after the fall of El Fasher, victims have endured widespread rape, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial executions, with many acts documented on video and celebrated by perpetrators. Satellite imagery suggests evidence of door-to-door executions, mass graves and the burning of objects that may be consistent with bodies. Unconfirmed reports from December 2025 estimate that at least 60,000 people may have been killed since the RSF’s takeover. An additional 150,000 residents remain unaccounted for.

In November 2025 the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide and the African Union (AU) Special Envoy on the Prevention of Genocide and Other Mass Atrocities warned of the real and growing risk of genocide in Sudan, stressing that the crimes committed display strong indicators of a deliberate intention to inflict conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction, in whole or in part, of targeted communities.

The conflict has severely restricted access to lifesaving aid through attacks, blockades and looting, triggering the world’s largest hunger crisis. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 12.5 million people have been displaced since April 2023 and an estimated 30.4 million people require assistance. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee has warned that famine is ongoing in Darfur and Kordofan states, with a high risk of further spread. Starvation has been used as a method of warfare, potentially amounting to the war crime of starvation and/or the crime against humanity of extermination.

Sudan underwent multiple significant political changes after former President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown amid countrywide protests in 2019. Leadership was initially transferred to a joint civilian-military transitional Sovereign Council but the military – led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and supported by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo – seized power on 25 October 2021. The current conflict erupted from mounting tensions between General Burhan, commander of the SAF, and General Hemedti, commander of the RSF, regarding the RSF’s integration into Sudan’s regular forces as part of a political agreement aiming to establish a new transitional civilian authority.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

The RSF now controls all of Darfur and is attempting to expand into the Kordofan region. The FFM has warned that the conflict in the Kordofans is on a trajectory that could amount to genocide, putting civilian populations at extreme risk. Since October the RSF has escalated its attacks on the Kordofans, perpetrating air and drone strikes that have hit civilians and civilian infrastructure, including medical facilities and schools. In one attack in early December, RSF drones reportedly struck a kindergarten and hospital in Kalogi, South Kordofan, killing at least 114 people, including 63 children. The International Organization for Migration estimates that between 25 October and 30 December 2025 alone, at least 42,780 people were displaced in North Kordofan. In many cases civilians attempting to flee are reportedly extorted, ethnically targeted or killed.

Fighting in the Kordofans and Darfur has further intensified around urban strongholds since the start of 2026. For months, the RSF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement–North, which recently aligned with the RSF, besieged SAF-held areas in their efforts to expand control in the Kordofan region. In early February 2026 the SAF reportedly broke the sieges of Kadugli and Dilling, regaining control of both cities in South Kordofan. The SAF has since intensified drone attacks against RSF-controlled areas in Darfur and the Kordofans, targeting fuel depots, markets and convoys to disrupt RSF logistics, undermine commercial activity and weaken the RSF. These operations have contributed to mass displacement from RSF-held areas.

Ongoing peace efforts involving the Quad (the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt), the UN, the European Union, the AU and others have made little tangible progress. Despite repeated proposals for humanitarian truces and ceasefires and occasional expressions of willingness by the parties, these initiatives have not translated into meaningful compliance on the ground.

Following the FFM’s genocide findings, the foreign ministers of Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom launched a new coalition on 26 February dedicated to atrocity prevention in Sudan. The UN Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions on four additional RSF leaders.

ANALYSIS:

Generals Burhan and Hemedti have consistently disregarded or obstructed attempts at ceasefires and peace deals and undermined Sudan’s political transition to preserve and expand their power and privileges. Both continue to recruit forces along ethnic lines and strengthen relationships with regional powers, whose backing – including financial, logistical and political support – continues to fuel the conflict.

While a ceasefire between the SAF and RSF is vital, it will not end the RSF’s ongoing identity-based violence. For decades, the Arab-dominated government imposed its control on ethnic minorities and exploited ethnic divisions, with armed Arab militias like the Janjaweed (the RSF’s forerunner) fueling deadly competition for resources and pastoral land. Civilians in Darfur and the Kordofans, particularly non-Arab communities, are at risk of ethnic cleansing and genocide given the country’s genocidal history, entrenched impunity for past crimes and ongoing ethnically charged violence.

Impunity has allowed those responsible for atrocity crimes and grave human rights violations to remain in leadership positions. During his dictatorship, former President Bashir, government officials and militia leaders were allegedly responsible for crimes against humanity, war crimes and acts of genocide, for which they were indicted by the International Criminal Court following a 2005 UNSC referral. As a commander of the Janjaweed, General Hemedti was also implicated in atrocities committed during the conflict in Darfur and beyond.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

      • Escalating humanitarian and human rights catastrophes driven by intense armed conflict, with widespread violence in densely populated areas.
      • Deliberate targeting of civilians based on their ethnicity, which may amount to ethnic cleansing and genocide.
      • Past or present serious discriminatory practices, policies or legislation against marginalized communities and persons belonging to minority groups, some of which may amount to crimes against humanity and acts of genocide.
      • Complete absence of meaningful reconciliation, accountability or transitional justice mechanisms, leaving victims and survivors without redress.
      • Sustained external interference through the provision of arms, funding, logistics, training or other forms of support by states, private companies and other entities.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Generals Burhan and Hemedti must agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities and all forces under their command must adhere to International Human Rights Law and IHL. The international community, including the UNSC, AU and UN member states, must use diplomatic channels, far-reaching sanctions and public condemnation to pressure the SAF, RSF and allied armed groups to immediately cease hostilities and attacks against civilians. The UNSC must urgently consider adopting a strong resolution with effective measures to protect civilians and prevent further escalation, including expanding the sanctions regime to target those responsible for conflict-related sexual violence, ethnic-based attacks and other atrocities. The international community should hold external actors accountable for fueling violence and contributing to atrocity risks, particularly those providing political, military or financial support to parties to the conflict, including the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Russia and Iran. States Parties to the Genocide Convention have a legal obligation to prevent and punish acts of genocide in Sudan.

Alongside ceasefire negotiations, the international community must rigorously assess the risk of further atrocities by identifying communities at imminent risk and coordinating timely, context-specific responses. Given Sudan’s fragmented conflict, all prevention and protection strategies must be tailored to local needs. Detailed mapping to identify acute risks are needed. The UN and member states must develop a comprehensive plan to address the humanitarian and protection needs of civilians, particularly women, children, internally displaced persons and minorities. The newly established coalition on atrocity prevention must ensure that preventing atrocities becomes a central priority in international engagement on Sudan. International donors must utilize more innovative and flexible ways for aid delivery across Sudan, including support for civilian-run Emergency Response Rooms, neighborhood communities and the disbursement of cash grants to empower local communities.

A comprehensive and inclusive political dialogue involving all relevant stakeholders, including civil society and marginalized groups, must be facilitated to address the root causes of the conflict and lay the groundwork for lasting peace.


For more on the Global Centre’s advocacy work on the situation in Sudan, see our Sudan country advocacy page.

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