Recurrent and expanding violence perpetrated by armed Islamist groups, as well as security operations to confront them, threaten populations in the Central Sahel – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – with violations that may amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes.

BACKGROUND:

Populations in the Central Sahel – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – are enduring armed conflict and inter-communal violence amidst a decade-long insurgency driven by armed Islamist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State Sahel Province. These groups perpetrate recurrent abuses and escalating attacks against civilians that likely amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), over 12,000 people, most of whom were civilians, were killed in 2023. At least 2.8 million people are internally displaced in the region, including more than 2.1 million in Burkina Faso alone. Violence has also taken place between rival ethnic militias and community-based self-defense groups resulting in reprisal attacks and countless abuses.

Armed Islamist groups have systematically used sieges, threats, kidnappings, improvised explosive devices and landmines as deliberate tactics of war as they seek to control supply routes and increase areas of influence. According to Amnesty International, al-Qaeda-affiliated Ansaroul Islam and other armed groups are enforcing sieges in at least 46 localities and committing war crimes. Across the region, armed Islamist groups are imposing forced taxation and strategically destroying and looting civilian objects, including places of worship, health centers, food reserves, water services and bridges. Insurgents also routinely target secular state education, burning schools and threatening, abducting or killing teachers.

Counterterrorism operations have often led to human rights violations and abuses that likely amount to war crimes. The UN Commission of Inquiry (CoI) on Mali found that the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) committed war crimes between 2012-2018, while human rights groups have documented continued grave violations and likely atrocities. The FAMa, alongside mercenaries from the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps), have perpetrated possible war crimes and crimes against humanity since December 2021, including summary executions, rape, sexual violence and torture against civilians. State-sponsored militias in Burkina Faso, notably the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), have also been implicated in grave crimes along ethnic lines, which disproportionately target the Fulani community. Nigerien security forces have also engaged in indiscriminate violence against civilians, including drone strikes.

The region has faced significant political and security upheaval since 2020. Military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have resulted in growing violence and repression. According to ACLED, the number of civilians killed by armed Islamist groups in Niger increased in the first year of military rule compared with the previous year, as attacks became more lethal but less frequent. Nigerien defense and security forces killed three times as many civilians since the July 2023 coup, as well as arbitrarily arrested civilians, particularly members of the Fulani community. Amid these shifts, the military regimes have taken steps to repress civic and political space and reduce international scrutiny into the country’s human rights situations. In Mali, for example, the UN Security Council sanctions regime and peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) were terminated despite the deterioration of the situation, raising concerns about the protection of civilians, accountability and the monitoring of abuses. The decision by the three military regimes to create the Alliance of Sahel States – a mutual defense pact – and withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States in January 2024 has compounded regional fragmentation and tensions.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

On 21 June the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Iyad Ag Ghaly, the head of the abusive armed Islamist group Ansar Dine, for war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed in Timbuktu, northern Mali, between January 2012-2013. On 26 June the ICC found Al Hassan, a senior member of the Islamic Police of Timbuktu and member of Ansar Dine, guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed between 2 April 2012 and 29 January 2013.

Since the start of 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has raised alarm multiple times over the dramatic deterioration of the situation in Burkina Faso, where nearly 1,800 people were unlawfully killed between November and April, many in a series of mass casualty incidents. In late August an al-Qaeda-affiliated armed group perpetrated one of the deadliest attacks so far this year, killing and injuring hundreds of people. During April Burkinabé authorities extended the “general mobilization” decree in a purported effort to curtail the spread of violence and recapture territory lost to armed Islamist groups. In the past several months, Burkinabé authorities have abused this law by forcibly conscripting, arbitrarily arresting or kidnapping dozens of perceived critics, human rights defenders and magistrates in counterinsurgency operations, likely amounting to enforced disappearances. According to the UN Refugee Agency, the escalating attacks have forced thousands of civilians to flee to Tillabéri, Niger, where continued clashes between the military and insurgents are exacerbating an already critical humanitarian situation and complicating protection efforts.

Amid heightened tensions and sporadic clashes in northern Mali in recent months, thousands of civilians have been displaced, with some fleeing to avoid being recruited by armed groups. Since the clashes began in August 2023, reports have surfaced of indiscriminate killing of civilians, targeted attacks on displaced populations, humanitarians and civilian property and looting. In late July violence occurred in Tinzaouaten, northeastern Mali, between the FAMa, Russian paramilitaries and a coalition of separatist Tuareg movements. In response to the attack, Mali, supported by the Burkinabé air force, launched airstrikes, reportedly killing civilians. Airstrikes during August allegedly killed 21 civilians, including 11 children. Meanwhile, an al-Qaeda-affiliated armed group has killed scores of civilians and destroyed civilian property in central Mali since January. This includes the suspected killing of at least 50 villagers during two separate attacks in July.

ANALYSIS:

While Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger each face distinct challenges, these states also share a legacy of structural vulnerabilities, weak governance, limited state presence and porous borders. Although the military authorities in each country have expressed a goal of advancing security to protect civilian lives, risks to civilians have amplified, the security situation has deteriorated and long-standing alliances have been dismantled.

The expanded area of influence and/or control by armed Islamist groups has resulted in war crimes and serious human rights abuses. Armed Islamist groups appear to be deliberately targeting civilians as a tactic to pressure communities into cooperation or forcibly displace them, as well as utilizing blockades to punish communities perceived to be supportive of the military. The CoI has previously implicated armed Islamist groups in crimes against humanity and war crimes.

Populations continue to be targeted and persecuted on the basis of their ethnic and/or religious identity. The VDP’s actions fuel abuses and possible atrocity crimes, aggravate ethnic tensions, encourage militant recruitment among pastoralists and contribute to prevailing impunity. The growing use of aerial weapons during counterinsurgency operations has contributed to indiscriminate violence, civilian harm and possible war crimes.

The withdrawal of MINUSMA has resulted in significant gaps in human rights monitoring and civilian protection in Mali, while the crackdown against human rights defenders and freedom of expression across the three countries has inhibited independent documentation and monitoring of violations and abuses.

The Al Hassan case is the first at the ICC to address crimes against humanity committed in northern Mali, marking an important step forward for justice and the fight against impunity. However, many victims regretted that the Court did not convict Al Hassan of any gender-related crimes.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Militarized approach of counterinsurgency that stigmatizes certain populations and increases risk of escalatory dynamics.
  • Unresolved long-standing inter-communal tensions and grievances and the use of militias and self-defense groups that perpetrate attacks along ethnic lines.
  • Impunity for large-scale atrocities perpetrated by all armed actors.
  • Political instability caused by irregular regime changes.
  • Shrinking civic space and crackdown on independent media, human rights defenders and real or perceived opponents as the military regimes consolidate power.

NECESSARY ACTION:

While countering violent extremism remains crucial, it is essential that all armed actors ensure that their operations comply with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and do not exacerbate inter-communal tensions or fuel further violence. The militaries must establish guidelines on the use of aerial weapons during operations and ensure they minimize civilian harm. All actors should refrain from supporting or collaborating with ethnically aligned militias with poor human rights records.

Additional measures must be implemented to end the proliferation of arms and improve land management and local governance in areas where atrocity risks are greatest.

The military authorities of the Central Sahel – with support from national human rights commissions and independent experts – should investigate all violations of International Human Rights Law and IHL. The authorities must end all acts of harassment against civil society, including human rights defenders, journalists and dissenting voices, and ensure they can carry out their activities without fear of reprisals. The Malian military government should cooperate with the UN Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Mali to ensure they can effectively carry out their mandate. The ICC Prosecutor should continue investigations and prosecutions of perpetrators of other serious crimes committed in Mali.