Ongoing localized and inter-communal violence, as well as political infighting, pose a pervasive threat to civilians in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND:

For the first time since the country gained independence in 2011, South Sudan is scheduled to hold presidential elections on 22 December 2024. Ongoing grave human rights violations and abuses, as well as persistent inter-communal violence, pose significant threats to the electoral process, as populations in various parts of the country face frequent sub-national clashes. For several years, senior political and military leaders have manipulated long-standing enmities between rival ethnic communities, enabling national level political dynamics to spark local conflicts. In several parts of the country, tensions between the two main political parties, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and the SPLM-In Opposition, over access to resources and political appointments have also culminated in violent clashes and triggered serious human rights violations, including widespread sexual violence, particularly against women and girls.

Some herding and farming communities, who have a history of competing over resources, also continue to engage in violent clashes, including cattle raiding and revenge killings. The increasing scarcity of resources as a result of climate change has exacerbated this fighting. During the first quarter of 2024, the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) documented 913 victims of inter-communal and political violence, including 468 people killed, 328 injured, 70 abducted and 47 subjected to sexual violence. Civilians in Warrap State suffered the highest rates of violence, followed by Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria States.

The UN Human Rights Council-mandated Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned that disappearing civic space and diminished opportunities for civilians to participate in essential democratic processes may give rise to grievances and increase the risk of atrocity crimes during the elections. Significant challenges in preparing for the elections also remain unresolved, including the absence of a permanent constitutional framework, inadequate electoral institutions, insufficient voter registration and ambivalence towards election security plans.

Ongoing instability traces back to a war between December 2013 and August 2015 that killed an estimated 400,000 people, during which the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and armed rebels from the opposition SPLA-In Opposition perpetrated war crimes and crimes against humanity, including extrajudicial killings, torture, child abductions and sexual violence. Despite several peace agreements between 2015 and 2018, intermittent fighting and ethnic violence continued. In September 2018 a Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed by parties to the conflict – including President Salva Kiir and then former Vice President and opposition leader Riek Machar – formally ending the civil war. The subsequent formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) in 2020 provided an opportunity to address divisions and support sustainable solutions to the conflict. However, bitter disagreements between and within parties of the TGoNU have widened divisions and further exacerbated tensions at the local level. The security forces remain aligned with different factions of the peace agreement, and many have not yet undergone training or been integrated into a unified command structure.

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, over 9 million people – more than two thirds of the population – need humanitarian assistance. An estimated 2 million people remain internally displaced and 2.27 million have fled to neighboring countries.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Following the announcement on 7 July by the National Elections Commission regarding the official date for the presidential election, political opponents, civil society groups and faith-based organizations voiced skepticism about the feasibility of conducting credible elections by the December deadline. President Kiir warned that further postponing elections could reignite war in South Sudan. Human rights activists and the media continue to face harassment, arbitrary detention and violence for criticizing the government or for their involvement in political and civil activities. During August amendments to the 2015 National Security Service Act – approved by the National Legislative Assembly in July – became law, thereby permitting the agency to proceed with the arrest or detention of individuals without warrants.

In April, after reviewing the conclusions of a UN assessment regarding the country’s election preparedness, the UN Security Council (UNSC) mandated UNMISS to provide electoral assistance, including support to voter education programs for the prevention and response to election-related violence.

Throughout June, violence continued across South Sudan. Armed youth from Guit, Rubkona and Mayom counties launched attacks in Aliny payam, located in Pariang County within the Ruweng Administrative Area. These attacks led to the displacement of an unspecified number of people and disrupted humanitarian activities.

ANALYSIS:

The repeated failure to uphold multiple peace agreements, continued political competition and mobilization of armed groups show a lack of genuine commitment to a political solution by South Sudan’s leaders. Their focus on preserving personal power allowed mistrust to reinvigorate ethnic tensions and fuel violence across the country. Delays in reforming the security sector appear to be a deliberate strategy by President Kiir to retain dominance. The disappearance of civic and political space diminishes opportunities for civilians to participate in constitution-making, transitional justice, national elections and other essential democratic processes and may give rise to grievances that become a trigger for atrocity crimes. Without careful management and electoral preparedness, there is a heightened risk of violence and atrocities in the months leading up to and in the aftermath of the elections.

The influx of small arms, light weapons and ammunition during South Sudan’s civil war has increased the enduring risk of atrocities, with the accessibility of weapons to civilians and youth groups making inter-communal clashes more deadly. The armed conflict and continued violations of ceasefire agreements underline the importance of the UNSC-imposed arms embargo and targeted sanctions.

A pervasive culture of impunity continues to fuel resentment, recurring cycles of armed violence and atrocity crimes. Neither the government nor opposition groups have held perpetrators within their own ranks accountable for past or current atrocities and none of the transitional justice mechanisms provided for by the R-ARCSS, including the Hybrid Court, have been established.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • A security crisis caused by, among other factors, delays in implementing a peace agreement, absence of a unified army under national command, weak state institutions and lack of capacity to prevent atrocity crimes and address rising political and inter-communal tensions.
  • Policy or practice of impunity for serious violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Human Rights Law (IHRL), atrocity crimes or their incitement.
  • Past and present serious inter-communal tensions and conflicts, the mobilization of armed groups along ethnic lines and the politicization of past grievances.
  • Capacity to commit atrocity crimes, including availability of personnel, arms and ammunition.
  • Upcoming elections as trigger event for atrocity crimes.

NECESSARY ACTION:

The TGoNU must urgently establish an inclusive electoral system and advance the permanent constitution-making process to allow for free, fair and credible elections in December. The TGoNU should also respect civic and political space and take all necessary measures to guarantee the participation of civilians in essential democratic processes. All armed groups must immediately cease hostilities and respect IHRL and IHL to prevent further civilian harm. The TGoNU must make every effort to stop the fighting, address the root causes of inter-communal violence and ensure the safety and security of all populations. The TGoNU, with support from international partners, must proactively prepare for potential election-related violence and take steps to mitigate associated risks.

The international community should exert increased diplomatic pressure on all parties to the R-ARCSS to ensure its full implementation. The UNSC must impose further targeted sanctions against any individuals who undermine the peace process. The African Union (AU), Intergovernmental Authority on Development and neighboring countries should actively enforce the existing arms embargo.

The AU and TGoNU must expeditiously establish the Hybrid Court and prosecute individuals responsible for past atrocities, regardless of their affiliation or position.