The potential collapse of the peace process, coupled with ongoing localized and inter-communal violence, pose a grave and escalating threat to civilians in South Sudan. 

BACKGROUND:

Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has experienced persistent conflict and atrocities, with successive phases of violence threatening civilians across the country. The civil war between December 2013 and August 2015 resulted in an estimated 400,000 deaths, with both the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), under the leadership of Salva Kiir, and the SPLA-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), under the leadership of Riek Machar, perpetrating widespread atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, torture, child abductions and sexual violence. While multiple agreements were signed between 2015 and 2018, including the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), their partial implementation has allowed instability and localized conflict to persist, including intermittent fighting and ethnic violence.  

Since the start of 2025 hostilities between government forces and opposition groups, as well as inter-communal tensions have intensified, with populations enduring conflict-related violence, sexual and gender-based violence, killings and other abuses perpetrated by various forces. Over 9.3 million people – more than two thirds of the population – need humanitarian assistance. An estimated 1.8 million people remain internally displaced and 2.29 million have fled to neighboring countries. 

The R-ARCSS established the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), led by President Kiir and First Vice President Machar, in a power-sharing arrangement intended to end the civil war and establish a path toward stability. It outlined a transitional framework centered on power-sharing, institutional reform and eventual national elections. However, implementation of the R-ARCSS has been repeatedly delayed, prolonging political uncertainty and deepening mistrust among the parties. The transitional period has been extended multiple times, with the latest extension postponing the country’s first elections to December 2026 due to the lack of necessary reforms and infrastructure. Amid the stalled implementation, hate speech and grave human rights violations and abuses continue to rise, fueled by a worsening political and security crisis.  

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Amid the recent escalation in inter-communal violence and sub-national clashes, the Human Rights Division of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) documented between January and March the highest number of civilian victims recorded in a single quarter since 2020, with a 34 percent rise in violent incidents and a 110 percent increase in civilian deaths compared to the last quarter of 2024. UNMISS documented 312 incidents of conflict-related violence affecting 1,607 civilians, including 739 killed, 679 injured, 149 abducted and 40 subjected to sexual violence.  

In Upper Nile State, clashes intensified between South Sudan’s national army – the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the “White Army,” a loosely organized militia composed mainly of youth from the Nuer ethnic community and suspected to be loyal to Machar. An attack on a market in Nasir on 14 February triggered violent confrontations, with local youth using heavy weaponry, killing at least 21 people and displacing thousands. The government of South Sudan has used improvised air-dropped incendiary weapons, killing and severely burning dozens of people, including children, and destroying civilian infrastructure in Upper Nile State. 

Security forces loyal to Kiir have detained at least 22 individuals, including political and military figures aligned with Machar. On 26 March Machar and his wife, Interior Minister Angelina Teny, were placed under house arrest.  

Fighting has since expanded to Central Equatoria, Jonglei, Unity and Warrap states. UNMISS estimates that over 200 people were killed in inter-communal violence in March in Tonj East, Warrap State, alone. In late May, renewed clashes over cattle raids and revenge attacks in Tonj East reportedly caused more than 80 additional casualties. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded a significant escalation in hostilities between 3 and 20 May, with reports of indiscriminate aerial bombardments, as well as river and ground offensives by the SSPDF against positions of the SPLA-IO in parts of Fangak, Jonglei State, and Tonga County, Upper Nile State.  

Since February approximately 100,000 people have sought refuge in neighboring countries. The UN Refugee Agency reports that fighting and movement restrictions in Upper Nile and other areas has significantly constrained humanitarian access for around 65,000 newly internally displaced people.  

ANALYSIS:

The prolonged delays and ongoing friction within the TGoNU fuel local conflicts, as senior political and military leaders continue to exploit long-standing ethnic divisions to serve their own agendas. The repeated failure to uphold multiple peace agreements, continued political competition and mobilization of armed groups show a lack of genuine commitment to a political solution by South Sudan’s leaders. Tensions over access to resources and political appointments have led to violent clashes and serious human rights violations, including widespread sexual violence, particularly against women and girls, as both parties prioritized the preservation of personal power, allowing mistrust to deepen ethnic divisions and fuel violence across the country. Delays in reforming the security sector appear to be a deliberate strategy by President Kiir to retain dominance. The recent violence and arrests have heightened political tensions in Juba and elsewhere, further straining the fragile relationship between Kiir and Machar. These developments have seriously jeopardized the viability of the R-ARCSS, with UN officials warning that South Sudan is on the brink of relapsing into civil war. 

The influx of small arms, light weapons and ammunition during South Sudan’s civil war has increased the enduring risk of atrocities, with the accessibility of weapons to civilians and youth groups making inter-communal clashes more deadly. The armed conflict and continued violations of ceasefire agreements underline the importance of the UN Security Council (UNSC)-imposed arms embargo and targeted sanctions. 

A pervasive culture of impunity continues to fuel resentment, recurring cycles of violence and atrocity crimes. Neither the government nor opposition groups have held perpetrators within their own ranks accountable for past or current atrocities. Despite the signing into law of the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation, and Healing Act 2024 and the Compensation and Reparations Authority Act 2024, none of the transitional justice mechanisms provided for by the R-ARCSS, including the Hybrid Court, have been established or are operational.  

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • • A security crisis caused by, among other factors, the sudden breakdown of the power-sharing arrangement, delays in implementing the R-ARCSS, absence of a unified army under national command, weak state institutions and lack of capacity to prevent atrocities and address rising political and inter-communal tensions.
    • Impunity for serious violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Human Rights Law (IHRL), atrocity crimes or their incitement.
    • Past and present serious and escalating inter-communal tensions and conflicts, the mobilization of armed groups along ethnic lines and the politicization of past grievances.
    • Capacity to commit atrocity crimes, including availability of personnel, arms and ammunition.
    • Repression of civic and political space.

NECESSARY ACTION:

All parties must urgently recommit to the provisions of the R-ARCSS as the foundation for peace and stability in South Sudan. The current situation, including the house arrest of Machar, has cast doubt on the existence and functionality of the TGoNU. To prevent further political fragmentation and escalation of violence, all stakeholders must work to restore the TGoNU in full compliance with the R-ARCSS’s terms, ensuring inclusive governance, respect for political freedoms and a return to the peace process roadmap. All armed groups must immediately cease hostilities and respect IHRL and IHL to prevent further civilian harm. All parties must make every effort to stop the fighting, address the root causes of inter-communal violence and ensure the safety and security of all populations.  

Given the current absence of a functioning TGoNU, the international community should intensify diplomatic pressure on all parties to return to the R-ARCSS and ensure its full and unconditional implementation, including security sector reform. Promoting accountability and professionalism across all security forces remains critical to preventing further violence. The UNSC must impose additional targeted sanctions on individuals who actively undermine the peace process. The African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and neighboring countries should rigorously enforce the existing arms embargo to stem the flow of weapons fueling conflict.