Populations across Ethiopia continue to be at risk of possible atrocities due to clashes between armed groups and government forces, as well as inter-communal violence. Populations in the Tigray region continue to endure war crimes and crimes against humanity despite a peace agreement. 

BACKGROUND:

Long-standing grievances and recurrent human rights abuses by government forces and armed groups in Ethiopia have caused multiple conflicts to flare since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed, particularly in the Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions, and over 3 million people remain displaced due to conflict. Inter-communal and inter-religious violence, as well as regional border disputes, also continue. Conflict and climate factors have driven a massive humanitarian crisis, leaving 21.4 million people in need of assistance. 

Since 2018 conflict between Oromia regional security forces, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) armed group have killed thousands of civilians, with parties perpetrating violations and abuses that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Despite a December 2024 a peace agreement signed by the federal government and an OLA faction, government forces continue to commit enforced disappearances and attacks on civilians, including through air and drone strikes and extrajudicial executions of perceived OLA supporters. The OLA, which seeks autonomy for ethnic Oromos, has targeted ethnic Amharas living in Oromia and border areas.  

From November 2020 – 2022 the ENDF and its allies, including the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), also fought in an armed conflict with the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). The fighting began in the Tigray region and subsequently spread to neighboring Afar and Amhara regions in July 2021. War crimes and/or crimes against humanity were committed by all parties to the conflict – with the Tigrayan population enduring the highest levels of violence. According to Refugees International, between 40 to 50 percent of women and girls in Tigray experienced sexual violence during the conflict, with 80 percent of victims reporting rape and/or gang rape by armed groups. Several UN bodies, including the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE), and international human rights groups documented indiscriminate bombings, ethnic-based killings, forced displacement, destruction of cultural heritage and systematic destruction of food, water and health infrastructure. Amnesty International and Human Rights watch also found that Eritrean forces and Amhara forces – with ENDF complicity – perpetrated ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans in Western Tigray. In October 2023 the UN Human Rights Council failed to renew the mandate of ICHREE despite the Commission documenting imminent risks of further atrocity crimes. 

Although the federal government and the regional governing body, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), signed a cessation of hostilities agreement (CoHA) on 2 November 2022, abuses by the EDF and Fano, an ethnic Amhara militia, have continued in Tigray, including sexual violence and extrajudicial killings of civilians. The regional administration estimates that around 40 percent of Tigray remains occupied, including by the EDF and Amhara forces in the west. 

Since April 2023 the ENDF and Fano forces have been engaged in clashes in and around civilian areas. The UN and international rights groups have documented abuses by federal forces, including mass arrests, drone strikes on civilians and attacks on health facilities. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported at least 115 civilian deaths in Amhara between September and December 2024. 

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Violence remained prevalent in the Oromia region, with clashes between the OLA and security forces escalating in April following the killing of a high-ranking OLA commander by the ENDF. The OLA subsequently targeted former OLA members – accusing them of aiding government forces in their attack – and abducted and killed their family members, including women and children. The OLA have also launched attacks in Benishangul-Gumuz. 

In Amhara, an ENDF drone strike on 17 April reportedly killed 100 people in Gedeb town in East Gojam zone. Government forces stated the attack was targeting Fano militia in the area, but survivors said the strike targeted civilians who were volunteering to a build a fence at a local school.  

On 14 May the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights heard a case by Legal Action Worldwide (LAW) and partners accusing the Ethiopian government of ongoing human rights violations in Tigray. LAW also filed a universal jurisdiction complaint in Germany against Ethiopian and Eritrean officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity. 

ANALYSIS:

In Amhara and Oromia, civilians are facing atrocities due to fighting between ethnic militias and the federal government’s retaliation against local communities. Amharas in Oromia and Oromos in Amhara, as well as those along the borders of both regions, are vulnerable to attacks by ethnic-based militias. Identity-based killings may amount to crimes against humanity, while targeted attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure may amount to war crimes. 

Populations in Tigray, Afar and Amhara also remain at risk of further war crimes and crimes against humanity due to violations of the CoHA. The unresolved question of the administration of Western Tigray and other disputed territories could reignite conflict, with both Amhara and Tigrayan ethnic groups claiming control over the land. Civilians in Tigray also remain at risk due to the continued presence of the EDF, which have been repeatedly accused of atrocities. Since April the fracturing of the TPLF – followed by the revocation of its political party status by Ethiopia’s elections monitoring body – has heightened fears of renewed conflict and underscored the ongoing political volatility threatening regional stability.  

A history of impunity and lack of effective transitional justice for human rights abuses perpetrated under successive ruling parties has exacerbated grievances. Victims and survivors of the most recent violence called for the country’s Transitional Justice Policy to include international elements; however, these calls were not heeded, reducing trust in the domestic accountability process. The non-renewal of the ICHREE incentivizes the federal government to further entrench impunity and undermines victims and survivors’ hopes for justice. The targeting of human rights organizations, defenders and the press further erodes trust in institutions and the rule of law. Given ongoing conflicts, it is imperative for all parties to pursue conflict resolution tracks before implementing transitional justice initiatives to allow for a holistic, inclusive and long-lasting process.  

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • • Ongoing tensions following conflict, threatening the fragile peace process in Tigray and neighboring regions.
    • Policy or practice of impunity for – or tolerance of – serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, atrocity crimes or their incitement.
    • Unresolved inter-communal tensions in conflict-affected areas and the ENDF’s attacks on associated ethnic-based militias.
    • Inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech by political figures to capitalize on the politicization of ethnic identity. 
    • Lack of trust and confidence in state institutions to resolve conflicts and implement transitional justice initiatives.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Government forces must conduct military operations in line with international law, sparing no effort to protect civilians, as well as ensuring transparent investigations into reported abuses as both an act of accountability and to foster trust with populations, including victims. Armed groups must end the targeting of civilians. 

While meaningful steps have been taken to implement the CoHA and enable the unfettered delivery of aid, the process must continue in good faith, with urgent progress needed on transitional justice and the return of displaced persons to their places of origin. The EDF should immediately withdraw from Ethiopia. 

Due to the lack of confidence in domestic accountability measures, the international community should explore alternative options, including through universal jurisdiction. The federal government should work with UN Special Procedures and other experts on transitional justice to ensure processes meet international standards. 

For more on the Global Centre’s advocacy work on the situation in Ethiopia, see our Ethiopia country advocacy page.