Populations at Risk Current Crisis


Populations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile continue to face mass atrocity crimes perpetrated by the Sudanese Armed Forces and affiliated armed groups. Populations in Darfur are also at risk of mass atrocities due to ongoing inter-communal violence and attacks by government forces.
BACKGROUND: More than two years since the UNSC adopted Resolution 2046, which called for a negotiated settlement to the conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) continue to engage in hostilities that directly threaten the civilian population. The government has prohibited access to South Kordofan and Blue Nile and is systematically preventing aid from reaching populations at risk of starvation.

Since June 2011 the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have conducted a counterinsurgency campaign in South Kordofan against the SPLM-N, a rebel group that fought alongside forces associated with the government of South Sudan during the

1983-2005 civil war. These forces have also been fighting in neighboring Blue Nile since the conflict expanded during September 2011. The ongoing conflict has led to the internal displacement of over 1.2 million civilians since 2011, while more than 243,500 have fled to South Sudan and Ethiopia.

The SAF has committed war crimes, including extrajudicial killing, forced displacement and sexual violence against civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The SAF has engaged in the widespread use of "scorched earth" tactics, including the systematic targeting of food sources and deliberate destruction of civilian structures. The SPLM-N has also perpetrated war crimes.

Despite the May to November rainy season, the SAF continued their indiscriminate aerial bombardment of South Kordofan. Some bombing operations coincided with South Kordofan's planting season, which takes place from May to July, while additional attacks were reported in Umdurrain and Farandalla during August. On 16 October a SAF Antonov plane bombed a crowded market in Heiban, killing civilians. The SAF have reportedly also continued their ground offensive in Blue Nile, shelling the civilian areas of Ora, Mofu, Mayak, Burfa and Wadaka. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, approximately 240,000 people in Blue Nile require humanitarian assistance.

Sudan has consistently failed to honor AU-brokered agreements and UNSC resolutions calling for a cessation of hostilities. This includes the failure to end aerial bombardments, disarm pro-government militias and allow humanitarian access. The most recent round of talks between the government and the SPLM-N were held on 12 November under the auspices of the AU High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) for Sudan.

The situation in Darfur also remains dire as civilians face ongoing inter-communal violence as well as SAF ground and air operations. Fighting between the SAF and rebel groups has contributed to the displacement of nearly 431,000 people so far this year.

The AU-UN hybrid peacekeeping force in Darfur (UNAMID) has criticized the government for restricting its ability to uphold its civilian protection mandate. On 16 October three UNAMID soldiers were killed in a militia ambush in Korma, North Darfur. Following allegations that UNAMID sought to cover up attacks against civilians and peacekeepers, the UN Secretary-General initiated an internal review of the mission. The investigation found no evidence to support the accusations. On 4 November the SAF initially prohibited UNAMID from entering Tabit, North Darfur, to investigate allegations of the mass rape of approximately 200 women and girls.

ANALYSIS: The government has a history of perpetrating atrocities in Darfur and during its civil war with the south. It has consistently defied external pressure to halt mass atrocity crimes. Such crimes are currently being committed in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, where patterns of violence targeting civilians for their perceived support of the SPLM-N have been witnessed for more than three years.

Both the government and the SPLM-N have continued attacks against civilian areas despite negotiations. The UNSC and AU have also failed to push the government and the SPLM-N to honor agreements on the cessation of hostilities and delivery of humanitarian aid.

Indiscriminate bombings of rebel-held areas demonstrate an unwillingness to distinguish between combatants and civilians, actions that violate IHL and may amount to crimes against humanity. The government also continues to block UN agencies and independent media from access to South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The intensification of bombing during the planting season, combined with the refusal to allow humanitarian access, may demonstrate a deliberate strategy of denying food supplies to vulnerable civilian populations.

Despite the presence of UNAMID, civilians have not been afforded adequate protection in Darfur. Ongoing inter-communal violence and the expanded operations of the SAF contribute to the risk of further mass atrocity crimes.

Not only is the government of Sudan manifestly failing to uphold its Responsibility to Protect, it is directly responsible for perpetrating mass atrocity crimes in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE: Members of the current government, including President Omar al-Bashir, the Defence Minister, Abdel Raheem Muhammad Hussein, and the current governor of North Kordofan, Ahmad Haroun, were indicted by the ICC in 2007 for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur. The ICC also issued a warrant for President Bashir in 2010 for perpetrating genocide in Darfur. On 11 September the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Darfur rebel leader Abdallah Banda, who faces war crimes charges for his alleged role in an attack on AU peacekeepers during September 2007 in northern Darfur.

The UNSC has adopted 56 resolutions on Sudan since 2004. Acting on behalf of the AUHIP, former South African President Thabo Mbeki has facilitated regular talks between the government of Sudan and the SPLM-N since 2011. [For responses prior to September 2014, see GCR2P's Timeline of International Response to the Situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile States.]

The AU Peace and Security Council issued a Communiqué on 12 September, noting that ongoing armed conflicts in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur "threaten the well-being of the Sudanese people and indeed the future of the country."

On 11 November the Troika (Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States) issued a statement welcoming the 12 November negotiations and calling for a cessation of hostilities in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur.

NECESSARY ACTION: The government and the SPLM-N, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2046, must cease hostilities and address the underlying causes of the conflict. The UNSC should expand the arms embargo on Darfur to include South Kordofan and Blue Nile.

The UNSC and AU must ensure the government and the SPLM-N facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to populations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, as stipulated in the 2011 Framework Agreement and 2012 cooperation agreements. States with major investments in Sudan, including China, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, should press the government to fulfill its commitments.

UNAMID must robustly protect civilians facing an imminent threat of violence and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Mediation efforts should be renewed between the government and armed groups operating in Darfur.

The government must stop obstructing UNAMID. Crimes against humanity and war crimes perpetrated in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur must be thoroughly investigated. The UNSC should mandate the establishment of an independent international commission of inquiry for South Kordofan and Blue Nile.

Last Updated: 15 November 2014